CASE STUDY: Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and in the end the English win (this time, they hope)

 

«Lloyd’s of London predicts that England will beat Brazil and emerge victorious at the 2022 FIFA World Cup – with France, Argentina and Spain falling just behind. Lloyd’s is going for a hat-trick of predictions, after correctly identifying Germany and France as winners in 2014 and 2018, respectively, by using a model that ranks the teams according to the collective insurable value of their players. 

The assessment of each insurable value comprises a variety of metrics such as wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position, said Lloyd’s, noting that the research was published with the support of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

With an estimated insurable value of £3.17 billion (US$3.6 billion), Lloyd’s predicts that England will edge out France, with an insured value of £2.66 billion (US$3.1 billion), and Brazil, £2.56 billion (US$2.9 billion), to claim the top spot. By way of overall comparison, Lloyd’s added, the average insurable value of one England or France player is more than the entire Costa Rica squad.

Using this methodology to play out the tournament in full, the Lloyd’s model predicts England’s Three Lions will finish top of Group B, before securing knock-out wins against Senegal, France, Spain and Brazil. (The World Cup is scheduled to take place in Qatar from Nov. 20 to Dec. 18, 2022).»

By Modeling Players’ Insurable Values, Lloyd’s Predicts England Will Win World Cup, Insurance Journal