"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (23) - You don't need to explain why the net approval rating is -30%...

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

... you need to explain why there are still 32% of voters who approve of a presidency that rivals the most disastrous quartet of American presidents: Franklin Pierce (1853–1857), James Buchanan (1857–1861), Andrew Johnson (1865–1869), and Warren G. Harding (1921–1923).

Net approval ratings are negative regardless of sex, age, race, or education level, and the more educated the voters, the higher the rejection rate – could it be otherwise?

"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (22) - It takes time, and perhaps it can be fixed

It was already known that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others, and it is now confirmed that democracy can be broken and, perhaps, fixed.

 

CNBC

"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (21) - Hitting a new low & It's the economy, stupid

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

Hitting a new low

YouGov

It's the economy, stupid

"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (20) - Robot portrait of a Trump supporter: male, old, white, and poorly educated

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

Back to the 19th century mercantilism

«In his second administration, Donald Trump has injected the federal government deep into private markets and undermined the independence of government agencies and institutions. Most notably, he repeatedly and publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. In a sharp departure from the traditional US model, and the model of economic government that has prevailed in the United States for centuries, Trump’s administration has acquired equity stakes in more than 30 American firms, and has even taken control of large swathes of the Venezuelan economy. 

Until the 19th century, Trumpian-style mercantilism was widely regarded as sound economic policy. That changed after Adam Smith’s powerful refutation of mercantilism revolutionized economic thinking. When private sector producers compete with one another, Smith argued, an “invisible hand” generates benefits that none intend, resulting in the production of goods and services that constitute the true “wealth of nations.”»

Making Globalisation Work: Trump’s 21st-Century Mercantilism

By Anne O. Krueger  (*)

___________

Anne Krueger is an American economist, World Bank Chief Economist from 1982 to 1986, and deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 2001 to 2006.

"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (19) - The swing voters of 2024 have abandoned the president. Swing but not stupid

 Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

Donald Trump’s disintegrating coalition

«Since returning to office, Mr Trump's approval ratings have sunk to historic lows. Virtually all those who voted for Ms Harris disapprove of his performance, as does one in five of his own voters. (...)  Just 65% of Mr Trump’s supporters plan to vote for a Republican.»

"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (18) - In all areas, there are more men and women of all ages, races, and educational levels who reject Trumpism on all issues. It's difficult to get worse, but not impossible.

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

"You can't fool all of the people all the time" (17) - Oklahoma is gone, Idaho and West Virginia are next

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

It is easy to understand why the net approval rate has been falling. What is hard to understand is that more than a third of Americans still approve.

You can't fool all of the people all the time (16) - Oklahoma withdrew and joined the remaining 45 states.

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

You can't fool all of the people all the time (15) - Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, are still left

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

Continuamos muito "competivos", como dizia o Dr. Costa, e pouco competitivos

Continuação daqui e dali.

No último ranking de Competitividade do IMD, o Portugal dos Pequeninos volta a cair, desta vez para o 40.º lugar.

A queda resulta sobretudo de um score medíocre da eficiência empresarial, o que não deveria ser surpresa para ninguém que tenha um módico de conhecimento da estrutura empresarial e do funcionamento das empresas. 

À ineficiência empresarial não é alheio o facto de, num país com 11,4 milhões de residentes, existirem 1,5 milhões de empresas não financeiras, das quais 96% são microempresas (em muitos casos, meros expedientes de profissionais isolados para diminuir a punção fiscal), 3,9% são PME e os 0,1% residuais são as grandes empresas que representam 36,4% do VAB total. É isto que temos, empresas pequeninas num país pequenino, com mentes pequeninas e egos inchados, sofrendo do complexo de Eduardo Lourenço.

Lost in translation (375) - Greve geral significa uma greve parcial dos funcionários públicos (II)

Continuação de Lost in translation (374).

BdP

Quem tenha consultado a lista de 66 páginas com 990 entidades afectadas pela greve, publicada pela CGTP, spin-off do Partido Comunista para as greves dos funcionários públicos, já teria concluído que impacto da greve geral foi ridiculamente insignificante e não terá razões para ficar surpreendido com a divulgação pelo BdP do Indicador diário da atividade económica (DEI) do Banco de Portugal dessa semana, de onde se conclui que ocorreu uma redução da actividade económica ao redor dos 5%.

Por que razão a direita não se une?

A pergunta é o título deste artigo de André Abrantes Amaral (AAA) e poderia ser, mas não é, uma pergunta retórica. A resposta de AAA situa-se no domínio da política portuguesa e não vou comentá-la porque o que me interessa é a questão mais geral, para concluir, uma vez mais, como aqui, por exemplo, o que toda a gente sabe ou deveria saber, mas é quase sempre esquecido ou desconsiderado.

Political Compass

Não há uma direita, há várias direitas, e entre essas direitas, em certos casos, há mais diferenças (por vezes inconciliáveis) do que entre algumas esquerdas e algumas direitas. É o que o próprio AAA reconhece quando conclui que «parte da direita que hoje é maioritária no parlamento defende uma maior intervenção do estado na economia, é socialista em termos económicos».

BREAKING NEWS: At first it seems strange, then it becomes ingrained (update)

Update to this post

«On January 6, 2021, 19-year-old Elias Irizarry was among the members of a violent mob that broke into the U.S. Capitol and attempted to overturn the recent presidential election. He was convicted of trespassing on government grounds, and videos from that day show him entering through a window with a metal pole in his hand. Now he may have access to sensitive national-security information as an employee of the Department of Defense.»  (The Atlantic)

Lost in translation (374) - Greve geral significa uma greve parcial dos funcionários públicos

Ontem, tivemos mais outra greve dita geral envolvendo pouco mais do que os ocupantes da vaca marsupial pública, alguns dos quais também se manifestaram contra o que chamaram pacote laboral, pacote cuja putativa adopção não teria quaisquer efeitos relevantes sobre esses ocupantes com empregos vitalícios protegidos do stress da concorrência. A esmagadora maioria das "vítimas" do pacote, os trabalhadores do sector privado, dos quais só em cada quinze está sindicalizado, continuaram a trabalhar nas empresas ou em teletrabalho suportando o desconforto da escassez de transportes públicos paralisados pelos ocupantes das referida vaca e a indisponibilidade dos serviços públicos nomeadamente das escolas e dos hospitais públicos.

O impacto da greve geral foi tão ridiculamente insignificante que a CGTP, spin-off do Partido Comunista para as greves dos funcionários públicos, publicou no seu site uma lista de 66 páginas com 990 entidades afectadas pela greve, a saber:

• 24 Empresas privadas com "produção parada" do milhão e meio de Micro e PME que existem em Portugal;
• 215 organismos públicos encerrados dos cerca de 4.200 organismos públicos existentes;  
• 15 organismos públicos com serviços mínimos;
• A restante miscelânia de entidades, com taxas de adesão à greve de 45% a 100%, dos quais quase todas são organismos públicos, entre eles:
• Cerca de 200 organismos ligados a câmaras municipais;
• Cerca de 270 escolas e creches;
• Com dificuldade, lá se conseguem encontrar algumas micro e PME, lista que inclui alguns  departamentos de empresas privadas (por exemplo a loja de Eiras da Auchan, um posto de abastecimento da BP, Lidl de Alcochete e de Tondela, o Posto logístico da Sonae na Azambuja e outra miudezas). 

A única novidade nas manifs com layout e slogans do século XIX, onde se viam cartazes a reclamar "pão" e a protestar porque o "custo de vida aumenta", foi a sua parasitagem por áctivistas (provavelmente os mesmos áctivistas das mudanças climáticas) que usaram a violência e provocaram a resposta, por vezes violenta, da polícia.

____________

Alteração do entrada do Glossário das Impertinências:

Greve geral (sindicalês)

Uma greve de muitos empregados do Estado, devidamente protegidos das agruras do mundo real, cujos "direitos" não são afectados, e de alguns trabalhadores de empresas privadas; greve convocada quando o governo não é de esquerda, por sindicatos que representam menos de um sexto dos trabalhadores, que reclamam ter mobilizado a maioria dos trabalhadores, greve geralmente com impacto limitado que é convocada para a véspera de um feriado, sexta-feira ou segunda-feira, acompanhada de manifs com cartazes do século XIX e parasitada por áctivistas violentos.

BREAKING NEWS: At first it seems strange, then it becomes ingrained

«A convicted Jan. 6 rioter who later said that he regretted his participation in the U.S. Capitol attack has been hired by the Trump administration to work inside a Pentagon office that manages highly classified military operations, according to four people familiar with the matter.

The appointment of Elias Irizarry, who was 19 at the time of the riot in 2021, to a post in the Defense Department’s Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict office has raised alarm internally among staff who question how anyone convicted in the assault on American democracy could be trusted for such a sensitive role in the U.S. government, these people said. All spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing a fear of retaliation.» Washington Post

At first glance, it seems strange that the Trump Administration would appoint someone convicted of breaking into the Capitol to work in counterterrorism at the U.S. Department of Defense. However, appointing such a person to combat terrorism makes as much sense as hiring a hacker to combat cyber intrusion, which is a normal procedure in the computer industry.

«President Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel's escalation in Lebanon in an expletive-laden call ("You're fucking crazy") on Monday, two U.S. officials and a third source briefed on the call told Axios.» Axios

It may also seem strange that Mr. Trump insulted Mr. Netanyahu, but the truth is that his democrat predecessor, Roosevelt, once said of the dictator Somoza, "He may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."

Unfortunately, not everyone, even among his devotees, understands these subtleties, and that's why President Trump's net approval rating continues to fall.

You can't fool all of the people all the time (14) - Mr. Trump is hitting rock bottom in every area

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

Inflation, employment, foreign policy, immigration, or crime - take your pick.

Men or women, young or old, white or black, illiterate or with a doctorate - take your pick.

What's hard to understand for a creature with a modicum of mental sanity isn't why the net approval rating is so low. What's hard to understand is why it isn't lower.

You can't fool all of the people all the time (13) - A kind of reversed Rufus T.

Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

Rufus T. by Groucho | Donald T. by himself

Rufus T. Firefly, played by Groucho Marx, is an eccentric dictator who wants to be president of Freedonia in the Marx Brothers' movie Duck Soup. Rufus says through Groucho's mouth in his inaugural speech as Prime Minister of Freedonia, "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."

Unlike Rufus, Mr. Trump would say, "Today these are my principles that you should like. Tomorrow they will be others, and you should like them too."

That's why it's much harder to be a devotee of Donald Trump than to be a fan of Groucho Marx, and that's why we should admire the former more than the latter.

You can't fool all of the people all the time (12) - Credo quia absurdum

 Other "You can't fool all of the people all the time."

YouGov

If you think YouGov polls are biased, look at the Rasmussen polls, which are often accused of being pro-Republican.

Rasmussen

If you think that after only 14 months Donald Trump is about to lose MAGA's support, think again. Firstly, because a devotee who has spent 14 months striving to justify one thing today and its opposite tomorrow, and accepting in the end a third different thing will be done, doesn't give up easily. In short, as he says, MAGA is himself.

How is all this possible, a rational mind might ask? At the risk of oversimplifying, I will say that history offers us several similar examples of herd behavior.

Who said it and under what circumstances?

 «There's been no more stunning example than Minnesota, where members of the Somali community have pillaged an estimated $19 billion from the American taxpayer. We have all the information and, in actuality, the number is much higher than that. And California, Massachusetts, Maine and many other states are even worse. (...)

It'll go very quickly. That's the kind of money you're talking about. We'll balance our budget. The Somali pirates who ransacked Minnesota, remind us that there are large parts of the world where bribery, corruption and lawlessness are the norm, not the exception. Importing these cultures through unrestricted immigration and open borders brings those problems right here to the USA. And it is the American people who pay the price in higher medical bills, car insurance rates, rent, taxes and perhaps most importantly crime.  (...)

If they ever got elected, they would open up those borders to some of the worst criminals anywhere in the world.

The only thing standing between Americans and a wide-open border right now is President Donald J. Trump and our great Republican patriots in Congress. Thank you. Thank you. [Applause] As we speak, Democrats in this chamber have cut off all funding for the Department of Homeland Security. It's all cut off. (...)

I'm telling you, they're crazy. [Applause] Amazing. [Inaudible] boy, oh boy. We're lucky we have a country with people like this. Democrats are destroying our country, but we've stopped it just in the nick of time, didn't we? [Applause] No one cares more about protecting America's youth than our wonderful first lady, now a movie star. (...)

We love you all. Love you. We're proudly restoring safety for Americans at home and we are also restoring security for Americans abroad. Our country has never been stronger. In my first 10 months I ended eight wars, including Cambodia. Isn't it funny? They're sick people. Cambodia and Thailand. Pakistan and India, would have been a nuclear war.»

It's easy to guess who said it. The circumstances are more difficult. A person with a modicum of decency and common sense would guess it was at a MAGA rally. Right? Wrong. It was during the Trump's 2026 State of the Union address.

A economia do pastel de nata tem o melhor desempenho este ano? (5)

Continuação de (1), (2), (3) e (4)

Além dos poucos comentadores assinalados nos posts anteriores que questionaram o faux pas da Economist, provavelmente a melhor revista de economia e finanças, que atribuiu o primeiro lugar do seu ranking à economia portuguesa, a saber Óscar Afonso (jornal Sol), José Paulo Soares (jornal Eco), Daniel Bessa (Expresso), João Duque (Expresso), Luís Aguiar-Conraria (Expresso) e Luís Mira Amaral (Expresso), acrescento agora o professor de Economia da UP Freire de Sousa.

 

No seu artigo «Quando os primeiros podem ser os últimos», publicado também no Expresso, Freire de Sousa deu-se à maçada de preparar um ranking alternativo com três dos cinco indicadores da Economist (os de natureza mais estrutural) onde a economia portuguesa cai do primeiro lugar do ranking da Economist para o penúltimo, apenas acima da Grécia. 

________

Duas notas de rodapé:

• Relevo, outra vez, que cinco dos seis comentadores desalinhados da euforia geral escreveram no Expresso, um semanário que, apesar da sua frequente reverência aos poderes fácticos, mostra, apesar disso, alguma independência e qualidade de opinião que não são frequentes na generalidade da imprensa;
• Registo também que Freire de Sousa, apesar de assinar há quatro décadas a Economist, não deixou de apontar criticamente a falha, mostrando não dispor de um cérebro ideológico, algo raro nos tempos dos "factos alternativos" e do primado da devoção acrítica pelos seus criadores.