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| Trading Economics |
«Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion dollars, hand them a little crypto check, right? We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion.»
August 2024, in a Fox Business interview
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta He talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta He talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk. Mostrar todas as mensagens
21/08/2026
Pro memoria (148) - See my leaps, don’t read my lips. The trumping way to Make the Debt Great Again
«Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion dollars, hand them a little crypto check, right? We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion.»
August 2024, in a Fox Business interview
21/06/2026
Pro memoria (148) - Some of the epitomes of anarcho-capitalism are, ultimately, examples of the triumph of the helping hand of the State.
«SpaceX “is a marvel of free markets” and “capitalism at its most remarkable”, you said in your leader on the rocket firm’s forthcoming initial public offering (“A Starship enterprise”, May 23rd). This overlooks the critical role that government played in getting SpaceX off the ground. In 2008 the fledgling startup was heading for bankruptcy until NASA awarded it a $1.6bn contract, thereby providing a trajectory-changing revenue stream. American taxpayers absorbed much of the early risk that private investors would not. SpaceX’s success is impressive, but it is a triumph of state-supported capitalism more than a free-market marvel.» T. Michael Spencer, Washington, DC (Source)
At first glance, it may seem that Elon Musk is very similar to the Portuguese capitalist who lives off the State. In reality, there are some differences. Musk was first saved by the State and repays it by wanting to slim down the State (DOJE), while the Portuguese capitalists are first saved by the State, repay it by trying to fatten the State, and go bankrupt despite the State.
His company Palantir — whose main clients include several governments, notably the American and the Israeli — somehow manages, quite miraculously, to enjoy the state’s helping hand as well.
23/03/2026
Pro memoria (146) - Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk pareciam ser um bocadinho magalómanos... e estão a ser
Continuação de Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos e de Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos... e o défice pode ainda aumentar
Nas palavras do Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget «No matter what metric one chooses to examine our fiscal trajectory, we are clearly headed in the wrong direction. Gross debt is now $39 trillion; debt held by the public recently surpassed $31 trillion for the first time; deficits are approaching $2 trillion; and deficits as a share of the economy are twice as large as the 3% goal many economists and bipartisan policymakers believe we ought to be targeting.?»
Recordemos que o Sr. Musk garantiu em plena campanha eleitoral em 2024 num comício MAGAlómano no Madison Square Garden que iria cortar um terço do orçamento federal anual de US$ 7 biliões, o equivalente a US$ 2,3 biliões (2.300.000.000.000).
Consumado o divórcio Musk-Trump, passado um ano e meio desde o anúncio e apenas cinco meses do ano fiscal de 2026 iniciado em Outubro e ainda sem a despesa militar decorrente do ataque ao Irão ao fim da 3.ª semana estimada em cerca de USD 20 mil milhões (o governo pediu ao Congresso um reforço do orçamento militar de USD 200 mil milhões), os dados oficiais mostram uma dívida federal em constante crescimento que já ultrapassou a do ano fiscal anterior.
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| Treasury.gov |
Nas palavras do Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget «No matter what metric one chooses to examine our fiscal trajectory, we are clearly headed in the wrong direction. Gross debt is now $39 trillion; debt held by the public recently surpassed $31 trillion for the first time; deficits are approaching $2 trillion; and deficits as a share of the economy are twice as large as the 3% goal many economists and bipartisan policymakers believe we ought to be targeting.?»
24/10/2025
Put the Blame on Mame. The rise of the boo-reaucrats (some of them are begging autocrats)
«(...) The ritual scapegoating of the European Union, a foggy realm of incomprehensible acronyms, is the oldest trick in modern continental politics. Aren’t “Brussels” the unaccountable lot who regulate industry into an early grave, badger governments about their debt levels, then give Trumpians whatever they want on trade? Treating the EU as a ghoulish bogeyman has been somewhat in abeyance ever since Britain overdosed on the idea, much to its cost. But the old spirit is haunting Europe once again. A look at the upcoming political agenda suggests that a lot more Brussels-bashing may soon be upon us. Boo! (...)
For that is the really spooky thing about Brussels-bashing. Politicians decry decisions made by the EU as if they were edicts handed down by some foreign power. But given that national governments form the backbone of the EU, “blaming Brussels” is akin to a ventriloquist haranguing his own puppet for being foul-mouthed. In truth many of the continent’s thorniest challenges, from succouring Ukraine to cutting carbon emissions and dealing with Mr Trump, can now only be handled at the level of 27 countries at least trying to act as one. That is a scary thought for many politicians. Heaping blame on the ghosts found in a drizzly Belgian city is more comfortable than looking closer to home.»
18/09/2025
Eight months later, we must conclude that if Mr. Putin has any sense of humor, he has been laughing since then
«First, I’ll meet with Putin, I’ll meet with Zelenskyy. They both have weaknesses and they both have strengths (...) And within 24 hours that war will be settled. It will be over. It will be absolutely over.»
Mr. Trump in a CNN town hall in 2023
«Putin is just laughing, not stopping the killing but increasing the killing»
EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas«Putin laughs at President Trump's peace efforts»
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski
04/06/2025
Pro memoria (443) - Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos... e o défice pode ainda aumentar
Continuação de Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos
Por muito paradoxal que seja a acção do DOGE, ainda mais paradoxal é que, entre o pork barrel e o prolongamento das redução de taxas sobre o rendimento introduzidas no primeiro mandato de Donald Trump, do que está em discussão no Congresso podem resultar incrementos das despesas federais e redução dos impostos que acrescentarão à dívida biliões de dólares.
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| The Cost of BIG, BEAUTIFUL DEBT (fonte) |
Em resultado, várias agências reviram em baixa a classificação de crédito da dívida americana que perdeu o triple A pela primeira vez em décadas. É mais um exemplo notável das leis Merton de unintended consequences de que a administração MAGAlómana nos tem dado inúmeros exemplos.
Como corolário a lei de Merton, Elon Musk, o mentor do DOGE, saltou em andamento do comboio do MAGA com um post bombástico na sua rede X:
«I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.»
E assim terminou uma GREAT and BEAUTIFUL friendship.
16/05/2025
Pro memoria (442) - Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos
Antes de olharmos para os cortes anunciados pelo Sr. Musk, recordemos uma estimativa feita em Setembro do ano passado sobre os impactos orçamentais no período 2025-34 das políticas anunciadas pelos candidatos de onde resultava que o défice total estimado para uma administração Trump seria o dobro do de uma administração Harris.
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| Fonte |
De volta ao Sr. Musk que perante o delírio dos magalómanos presentes no MAGA-comício no Madison Square Garden garantiu o ano passado que iria cortar um terço do orçamento federal anual de US$ 7 biliões, o equivalente a US$ 2,3 biliões (2.300.000.000.000).
Seis meses depois a propaganda do DOGE (Departamento de Eficiência Governamental) anuncia ter feito cortes de US$ 170 mil milhões ou 7,3% do anunciado, dos quais a parte mais bem documentada são os US$ 31,8 mil milhões de 10.248 cancelamentos e alterações de contratos dos quais o Financial Times só conseguiu confirmar cerca de 2/3. Ainda assim, há provas de avaliações inflacionadas, por exemplo considerando como corte da despesa contratos já terminados, e muitos dos cortes anunciados são pontuais e não recorrentes nos próximos anos e outros ameaçam paralisar o aparelho federal.
Mais verificável é a opacidade do funcionamento do DOGE sobre o qual pouco se sabe. É também mais verificável a perda de biliões de dólares da fortuna pessoal do Sr. Musk pela desvalorização da Tesla e o cancelamento de contratos da Starlink.
[Leia What has Elon Musk’s Doge actually achieved? para ter mais detalhes dos excessos magalómanos]
21/02/2025
All politicians are liars, but some face insurmountable obstacles to telling the truth
“All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others”?George Orwell's novel “Animal Farm,
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| Political Fact |
20/02/2025
A brilliant speech by VP JD Vance delivered in the wrong place
I do not share JD Vance's political thinking, particularly his nativist nationalism, although I would subscribe to every line of his speech on democracy. So what's the problem? There are three problems.
One is that I am not sure of the sincerity of his democratic convictions when I see the government of which he is a part using democracy to propagate the ideas they defend and try to prevent the dissemination of ideas they disagree with, distort the American Constitution and try to control justice and the federal administration for the benefit of a clique in their party. Another is that some of those who applauded him most in Munich are trying to illegitimately control the democratic institutions of their countries. Third, his extraordinary speech was delivered in the wrong Conference.
16/02/2025
The end of the Empire as we knew it
An old man suffering from extreme narcissistic personality disorder imagines himself to be the most powerful man in the world and the world watches the old man being humiliated in the locus of his alleged power live by a rude brat under the amused gaze of his father.
And no, the humiliation is not whether or not X said that Trump is not the president, as claimed by devotees who started reading lips and came to the ridiculous conclusion that X was saying he wanted to pee. Even if it was, it would have just been something said by a brat whose father was unable to raise him properly, which in itself is quite serious for a father who claims to be the master of the universe. The humiliation was how Musk completely disrespected the President, not that ridiculous guy sitting there, but the POTUS.
15/02/2025
13/02/2025
Mitos (348) - A obra de Donald Trump na imigração durante o 1.º mandato
Gráfico 2: A acumulação de casos nos tribunais de imigração mais do que dobrou durante o mandato de Trump. As deportações em massa anunciadas por Trump aumentarão ainda mais o tempo médio de processamento que já é superior a 1.000 dias.
Gráfico 3: Os recursos da Customs and Border Protection são insuficientes e Trump prometeu aumentar 10.000 agentes neste mandato e dar a cada um bónus de retenção de US USD 10.000. Não se sabe se isso compatível com os planos do DOGE de Elon Musk que pretende cortar USD 2 triliões (escala curta ou 2 biliões na escala longa) da despesa federal.
Gráfico 4: As deportações caíram significativamente em relação a Obama que expulsou em média mais 22% do que Trump.
Gráfico 5: Os obstáculos para expulsar 11 milhões de imigrantes ilegais muitos deles com filhos nascidos nos EUA poderão criar uma confusão legal, logística e diplomático maior do que a do primeiro mandato que Trump não conseguiu resolver.
28/01/2025
O presidente Trump a fazer o lugar do outro
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| Reuters |
A fazer o lugar do CEO da Microsoft, o imigrante indiano Satya Nadellla, dando informações através dos mídia ao SEC Mark Toshiro Uyeda, neto de imigrantes japoneses que foram internados pelo governo americano durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial.
18/01/2025
Questions (345) - What could result from a general increase in tariffs?
(...) begin with Mr Trump’s most dangerous idea: a 10-20% across-the-board tariff, accompanied by a 60% levy on all Chinese imports. This would undoubtedly batter Asia. America is the leading export destination for ASEAN countries, India and Japan, as well as the second-biggest destination for South Korea and Taiwan. asean’s trade intensity, measured as the ratio of trade to GDP, is twice the global average. Asian countries with ageing populations require external demand to grow.
A simulation of a full-blown tariff scenario conducted by Oxford Economics, a consultancy, finds that non-China Asia would be a net loser. In the long run American imports from the region would fall by 3% and exports to it by 8%. Demands for retaliation would grow, driven by the political prerogative to “not look like a wimp”, notes Jayant Menon of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, which hosted the ASEAN get-together. Such tit-for-tat tariffs would ultimately amount to self-harm. Economic theory suggests that protection can be optimal (in narrow balance-of-trade terms) when countries enjoy outsized market power in the trade of a particular good—a condition that does not hold for most of Asia. Worse still, American military partners, including Australia, India and Japan, would be forced to choose between their economic and security interests.
These dangers are clear. Some Trump loyalists play down the chances of an all-out trade war, however, insisting that the threat of enormous universal tariffs is merely a negotiating tactic. Although a less dramatic ratcheting-up of the America-China trade conflict would be less devastating, it would still pose risks.
12/01/2025
The gap between the rhetoric for devotees and the harsh reality is huge and growing (3) - Mass deportation or else
Continued from (1) and (2)
«There is a big debate taking place among supporters of President-elect Donald Trump over H-1B visas, which enables American employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations, such as highly-skilled technology roles.
Front and center of that debate but on opposing sides are two of Trump's most-prominent supporters: Technology billionaire Elon Musk and his former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.
Musk, who helped to bankroll Trump's re-election campaign and is leading his new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), sees H-1B visas as essential to attracting the best global talent to the U.S., strengthening American companies.
But Bannon, an architect of Trump's original Make America Great Again platform, argues that these visas mean American talent is sidelined or left undeveloped, which ultimately hurts the U.S. He wants them gone.
The rhetoric has been spiky at times. Musk, addressing critics of the H-1B visa in a post on X, wrote: "Take a big step back and F**K YOURSELF in the face. I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend."
(In replay Steve Bannon has labeled Elon Musk a "toddler") and on his War Room podcast called Musk and others "recent converts" and warned "we're going to rip your face off" if they "go to the pulpit in your first week here and start lecturing people about the way things are going to be."»
11/01/2025
The gap between the rhetoric for devotees and the harsh reality is huge and growing (2) - "Within 24 hours that war will be settled" or else...
Continued from (1)
Two European officials told the Financial Times that discussions with Trump’s incoming team in recent weeks revealed they had not yet decided on how to solve the conflict, and that support to Ukraine would continue after the US president’s inauguration on January 20.
“The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach,” said one of the officials.
Trump earlier this week suggested that “six months” was a more realistic target to end the war. His appointee as special envoy for the war in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, told Fox News on Wednesday that the aim was to stop the conflict in “100 days”.
“I would like to set a goal on a personal and professional level — I would set it at 100 days and move all the way back,” Kellogg told Fox News when asked about a Ukraine peace deal. “And figure a way we can do this in the near term, to make sure the solution is solid and it’s sustainable and that this war ends so that we stop the carnage.”»
_________________
Business as usual: obsessed with strength and looking strong, wary of comparisons, within 24 hours, 100 days, or else.
09/01/2025
The gap between the rhetoric for devotees and the harsh reality is huge and growing (1) - "Within 24 hours that war will be settled"
«First, I’ll meet with Putin, I’ll meet with Zelensky. They both have weaknesses and they both have strengths (...) And within 24 hours that war will be settled. It will be over. It will be absolutely over.»
«Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.
This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency. (...)»
Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine, Robert Kagan in The Atlantic
27/12/2024
No, maybe it won't be the end of the world (10)
Continued from (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (6), (7), (8) and (9)
"Drill, baby, drill" is one of Mr. Trump's most popular mottos. With this colorful formula Mr. Trump designates his plans to increase gas and oil production that will allow him to increase exports and reduce the trade deficit and, in addition, the budget deficit. In normal politicians, what they say must be seen cum grano salis. What does Mr. What Trump says must be seen cum multum salis.
In the case of shale oil, the best wells are already being explored, so the increase in production will be carried out at increasing costs and will only be profitable if oil prices increase enough. On the other hand, as the largest economies are growing little or moderately, global demand is not expected to increase significantly, also because a transition to electric vehicles is underway.
Also increasing gas production faces some obstacles starting with the prices needed to justify new investments to increase production, prices that are not expected to increase enough because new operators such as Australia and Qatar are entering the market.
In conclusion, once again, Mr. Trump´s statements are like the news of Mark Twain's anticipated death - greatly exaggerated.
[Source: How much oil can Trump pump?]
(To be continued)05/12/2024
No, maybe it won't be the end of the world (9)
Continued from (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (6), (7) and (8)
The election of Mr. Trump will have consequences not only for the USA but for several other countries, starting with the European Union, which he had already clearly warned in his previous term regarding Defense and NATO: «No, I would not protect you…in fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.» Today the consequences for the EU will be even heavier with the Franco-German engine broken politically and economically.
Also in terms of external trade, the EU will bear the consequences of its surplus in trade with the USA, which will be around USD 200 billion, of which around 40% relates to Germany, which will be the hardest hit country.
In addition to the EU, the countries most affected by the tariff increases promised by Mr. Trump will be China, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada and Japan, with surpluses in USD billions of almost 300, more than 150, about 100, about 80 and about 80, respectively. Regarding immigrant remittances, several countries could be affected, especially Mexico, whose emigrants are responsible for more than USD 50 billion in remittances.
In the 1930s, the American government increased the average tariff on imports by six percentage points, initiating protectionist reactions that significantly reduced foreign trade for all countries and prolonged the effects of the 1929 crisis until almost the end of World War II. Imagine the potential effects of the gigantic raises promised by Mr. Trump, which we hope will largely be show off.
Education is one of the areas in which Mr. Trump are contradictory. He promised to dismantle the Department of Education, according to him full of «radicals, zealots, and Marxists» - apart from the usual exaggeration he has a point, and return power to the State. On the other hand, he says he wants to use executive power to force schools to adopt his cultural agenda.
Strangely, Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders, a fierce left-wing Democrat, both agree to set a maximum of 10% for interest on credit card payments. They are both wrong because with the rewards generally associated with use, the cards are a vehicle for transferring an estimated value of USD 15 billion from those who do not benefit from the rewards, generally the poorest, to those who use them, generally the wealthiest.
(To be continued)
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