«By the United States military’s estimation, about 1,550 marine vessels—oil tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, and more—are idling in the Persian Gulf right now. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blockaded, their crews, many of them uninvolved in the ongoing war with Iran, are slowly using up supplies as they await safe passage through the mine-filled waterway. Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. would rescue these “victims of circumstance” by guiding them out of the war zone in an as-yet-unspecified way. On Monday, though, Iran’s military rejected the plan, warning that American military forces would be attacked if they approached the strait.
Both sides fired shots yesterday, although the U.S. claims that the cease-fire remains in place. The fact that Iran’s leaders are apparently willing to risk violating the delicate monthlong truce emphasizes just how fiercely they want to protect their hold over the strait. The past 65 days of war have badly punished Iran: Its leaders are dead, its navy and air force have been depleted, and its economy and infrastructure have been decimated. “If we leave right now,” Trump said last week, “it would take them 20 years to rebuild.” But amid the destruction, the country has also found new forms of leverage. Iran had not previously exercised this degree of control over the Strait of Hormuz, and before the war, the country could not have been confident that it would be able to do so. Even in its diminished state, the Iranian military has managed to deter enemy ships and outmaneuver anti-air systems, maintaining that grip on the strait while costing the U.S. billions.
After the U.S. and Israel began their military action, the Iranian government said it would attack any ship that tried to sail through the strait, and began deploying mines as deterrents. Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through each day; yesterday, that number was down to three. The ships that do cross now mostly do so under the strict supervision of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which reportedly has been demanding tolls in cryptocurrency and Chinese yuan, and rerouting traffic away from Oman, toward Iran-controlled waters.
Iranian dominance over the strait may well be the new norm. On Sunday, Iran’s Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ali Nikzad was emphatic that the country “will not back down” from its position on the strait, “and it will not return to its prewar conditions.” That’s because the country’s restrictions on the strait have succeeded on a strategic level, creating a global energy shock and unleashing economic devastation around the world—putting massive pressure on the U.S. and Israel to come to the bargaining table. Trump has demanded that Iran “Open the Fuckin’ Strait,” but as Iran’s threats yesterday made clear, we’re a long way off from the pre-February status quo. Even when Iranian leadership has offered to reopen the strait as part of potential peace deals, as it has over the past month, it has done so with the knowledge that Iran could always reassert control. That’s exactly what happened on April 17, when the country declared the strait open to all; the next day, Iran reimposed its restrictions on passing ships, effectively closing the waterway once again.
