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09/01/2025

The gap between the rhetoric for devotees and the harsh reality is huge and growing (1) - "Within 24 hours that war will be settled"

 «First, I’ll meet with Putin, I’ll meet with Zelenskyy. They both have weaknesses and they both have strengths (...) And within 24 hours that war will be settled. It will be over. It will be absolutely over.»

Mr. Trump in a CNN town hall in 2023

«Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency. (...)»

Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine, Robert Kagan in The Atlantic

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