NÓS VISTOS POR ELES: O segredo da social-democracia de Costa é ser apenas um aparelho eficaz para o manter no poder

A geringonça vista pelo cartunista da Economist

«Even Mr Costa’s opponents concede that he is a canny operator. But his success has been oiled by a healthy squirt of good luck. The Socialists assumed office as Portugal’s recovery took off, aided by growth in the European markets that take 70% of its exports, and built on the measures taken by the previous government. The European Central Bank’s bond-buying had calmed markets. Tourism has boomed, thanks to instability in other warm countries. Perhaps most importantly immigration, the issue tearing apart so many European parties of the left, does not animate Portuguese voters. It is the departure of people that causes a bigger headache: during the crisis 250,000 Portuguese, disproportionately of working age, upped sticks in four years.

Portugal’s squeeze on spending had to be financed from somewhere. The axe has fallen on public investment, which was slashed in 2016 to the lowest level in the EU. Mario Centeno, the finance minister, says this was largely the result of a temporary drop in EU subsidies, and chuckles at the sight of “so-called neoliberals” who now consider Keynes their “god”. He prefers to draw attention to Portugal’s healthier banks and buzzing universities, though he adds that investment is climbing again. Another fear surrounds Portugal’s huge debt, which explains Mr Centeno’s relentless focus on the deficit.

As this suggests, Portugal’s left-wing government is thriving partly because it is not especially left-wing. For now it is fixated on deficits and debt rather than investment and public services. A centre-right government would be doing much the same. And so, despite Mr Costa’s warm words, the contraption will surely prove to be a temporary marriage of convenience; his party is already said quietly to be putting out feelers to the Social Democrats. European leftists may find inspiration in Portugal. But they will have to seek ideas elsewhere.»

Excerto de «Social democracy is floundering everywhere in Europe, except Portugal», The Economist

Registe-se o notável descaramento de Centeno ao referir-se aos so-called neoliberals” who now consider Keynes their “god”. Um Centeno que foi o principal autor do relatório «Uma década para Portugal» onde escreveu:

«O investimento é o motor da economia, ... O investimento privado espera-se que cresça 25% ao longo da legislatura, acompanhado por uma aceleração do investimento público de cerca de 11%.»

E um Centeno que foi o principal responsável em parceria com Costa por ter reduzido o investimento público em 2016 e 2017 em 32% e 16%, respectivamente, e ter passado Portugal de terceiro país na UE com mais investimento público em 2010 para o país com menos investimento público em 2017. Isto não tem nada a ver com Keynes, isto tem a ver com a paralisia da máquina administrativa de um Estado agora apenas focado na satisfação das freguesias eleitorais do PS, PCP e BE.