«The rupture of the post-1945 order is gaining pace. In extraordinary scenes at the UN this week, America sided with Russia and North Korea against Ukraine and Europe. Germany’s probable new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, warns that by June NATO may be dead. Fast approaching is a might-is-right world in which big powers cut deals and bully small ones. Team Trump claims that its dealmaking will bring peace and that, after 80 years of being taken for a ride, America will turn its superpower status into profit. Instead it will make the world more dangerous, and America weaker and poorer.
You may not be interested in the world order—but it is interested in you. America’s Don Corleone approach has been on display in Ukraine. Having initially demanded $500bn, American officials settled for a hazy deal for a joint state fund to develop Ukrainian minerals. It is unclear if America will offer security guarantees in return.
The administration is a swirl of ideas and egos but its people agree on one thing: under the post-1945 framework of rules and alliances, Americans have been suckered into unfair trade and paying for foreign wars. Mr Trump thinks he can pursue the national interest more effectively through hyperactive transactions. Everything is up for grabs: territory, technology, minerals and more. “My whole life is deals,” he explained on February 24th, after talks on Ukraine with Emmanuel Macron, the French president. Trump confidants with business skills, such as Steve Witkoff, are jetting between capitals to explore deals that link up goals, from getting Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel to rehabilitating the Kremlin.
This new system has a new hierarchy. America is number one. Next are countries with resources to sell, threats to make and leaders unconstrained by democracy. Vladimir Putin wants to restore Russia as a great imperial power. Muhammad bin Salman wants to modernise the Middle East and fend off Iran. Xi Jinping is both a committed communist and a nationalist who wants a world fit for a strong China. In the third rank are America’s allies, their dependence and loyalty seen as weaknesses to exploit. (...)
Meanwhile, when borders are contestable wars will follow. Even giants like India may feel insecure. Because Mr Trump views power as personal rather than anchored by America’s institutions, he may find it hard to persuade his counterparts that agreements will endure—one reason he is no Henry Kissinger. (...)
Mr Trump believes that America can partially or fully abandon Europe and perhaps its Asian allies, too. He says it has a “beautiful ocean as a separation”. However, wars now involve space and cyberspace, so physical distance offers even less protection than it did in 1941, when Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor ended America’s isolationism. What is more, when America wants to project hard power or defend the homeland, it depends on allied help, from the Ramstein airbase in Germany and Pine Gap signals station in Australia to missile-tracking in Canada’s Arctic. In Mr Trump’s world, America may no longer have free access to them. (...)»