Khamenei May Be Gone, thank you Bibi and thank you Don, but (2)

Continuação de (1).

The late Aitola Khamney in the company of Mr. Trump's crony

The past

«Yes, Mr Trump once warned that Barack Obama would attack Iran because of “his inability to negotiate properly”. Yes, as recently as last May Mr Trump derided “interventionalists” for “intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves”. And, granted, there’s all that recent “president of peace” hooey.

While you’re getting that off your chest, you might also describe how he has tied himself in knots while unspooling his many rationales for waging war together with Israel on Iran. How can he fear a nuclear programme he “obliterated” a few months back? How can he warn that Iran might soon rain intercontinental ballistic missiles on America when the Defence Intelligence Agency has said such weapons were ten years away, provided Iran actually decided to build them? And can this really be the same Donald Trump who used to ridicule the regime-changing, democracy-building visions of “neocons”—and now tells the Washington Post, “All I want is freedom for the people”?

It is the same Mr Trump, so steel yourself. While you can await contortions from lesser America Firsters, such as poor J.D. Vance, do not expect Mr Trump to bother trying to reconcile present practice with past positions. He has always been the most opportunistic of men. He did not become a crypto billionaire by hewing to his public contempt for cryptocurrencies as scams “built on thin air”, just as he did not achieve his astounding political comeback, after trying to thwart the transfer of power in 2021, by following any rule book or, indeed, adhering to any principle—no principle, that is, beyond winning, as he defined it.» (Source)

The possible future

 

I don't think it's possible for a Mr Trump, with no convictions beyond his vanity, a transactional approach to foreign policy, and suffering from narcissistic personality disorder, to understand and anticipate the reaction of the Ayatollah's regime.

He doesn't understand that the Ayatollah's regime, in the name of a barbaric ideology, may be willing to sacrifice its leaders and its people to remain in power, and continue to do so beyond the time horizon of Mr. Trump's mind and the capacity of the American people to endure human (for now few) and economic (probably significant) losses.

Since it is implausible that the Trump administration will take concrete steps, namely, put the boots on the ground to defeat the Ayatollah's regime, it is very likely that, after a few days or weeks, Mr TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) will wait for the first pretext to cower.