The new Supreme Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Ali Khamenei, killed in the Israeli attack along with Mojtaba's wife and son. The new leader has a fortune obtained from the clandestine sale of Iranian oil that rivals Trump's, and that's where the similarity ends.
Mojtaba Khamenei served in the armed forces during the Iran-Iraq war, knows the political system inside out, and has strong ties to the Revolutionary Guard. With this past and the hatred that will result from the assassination of three family members, it is predictable that he will do everything to resist the "special operation" hoping that Trump's volatility, the horror of the loss of American lives, and the consequences of a crisis stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will do the rest.
That is why I continue to consider the most likely outcome is that, after a few weeks, Mr TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) will wait for the first pretext to cower.
3 comentários:
the most likely outcome is that, after a few weeks, Mr TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) will wait for the first pretext to cower
Também julgo, e desejo, que seja isso que vá acontecer.
"the horror of the loss of American lives"
E isso vai aconter porquê? Os americanos dificilmente porão os pés no Irão...
"the consequences of a crisis stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf"
Isto aqui é outra história. Se o petróleo continuar a subir, a contestação à Administração Trump pode, efectivamente, fazer o Presidente recuar.
"Trump Always Chicken Out"
Mesmo que o faça, Trump já demonstrou ter mais coluna vertebral do que o Merdama e o Bidé, que passaram os seus mandatos a levar o Irão ao colo e a financiar os aiatolas. Se ele é cobarde, os outros dois não chegam a ser gente.
after a few weeks, Mr TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) will wait for the first pretext to cower
Resta saber se, quando Trump decidir parar a guerra, o Irão decidirá o mesmo.
O facto é que sob Trump os EUA (e Israel sob Bibi) se têm portado de forma tão errática, e enganado deliberadamente os adversários, que não há razão nenhuma para o Irão ter qualquer confiança num acordo de paz que um dia venham a firmar.
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