«Yet, in a broader sense, the moment Mr Putin is obliged to wage such a war of attrition, he will already have lost. In Ukraine the patriotic spirit forged from his targeting of cities and their inhabitants has already ensured that any government which rules in his name will be seen as illegitimate. Across much of the world, he would become even more of a pariah. And at home, he would preside over a society strangled by sanctions and trampled under his repressive regime.
It seems ever clearer that the Russian elite is appalled—and impoverished—by his paranoid adventurism. The worse his plans go in Ukraine, the sooner cracks will start to appear in his regime and the more the Russian people will take to the streets. If Mr Putin is to hold on to the Kremlin, he may be obliged to impose terror of a severity that Russia has not seen for decades.
Mr Putin’s first mistake was to underestimate his enemy. Perhaps he believed his own propaganda: that Ukraine is not a real country, but a fake erected by the cia and run by crooks who are despised by the people they govern. If he expected Ukraine to collapse at the first show of Russian force, he could not have been more wrong.
Mr Putin’s second mistake was to mismanage his own armed forces. His air force has so far failed to dominate the skies. He has laboured to reassure his people that Russia is not engaged in a war, but just what he calls a “denazification” operation. Soldiers, unsure of what they are supposed to be doing, have turned up in Ukraine expecting to be welcomed as liberators. If he orders troops to slaughter their Ukrainian kin in large numbers, they may not obey. If many of his troops die in the attempt to crush Ukrainian cities, as is likely, he will not be able to cover it up at home.»
Excerto de «Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threat shows how much is going wrong for him in Ukraine»
«The Russian war machine is nevertheless struggling. Things are very different from 1968. But its performance is also “worse [than] in Georgia in 2008”, says Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst. That war led to sweeping reforms to the armed forces, but perhaps not sweeping enough. Images from Ukraine show mangled clumps of Russian armour. A video from the alleged aftermath of an ambush on one convoy near Sumy, a north-eastern city, on Sunday, shows the loss of at least a dozen armoured vehicles, including two tanks, and a self-propelled howitzer. The question is whether these troubles are temporary or indicate a deeper rot that Ukraine can exploit.
Russia’s biggest problem appears to be logistics. A Western official says that Russia has particular problems with engineering units. Ukraine has blown up many bridges, and Russia has been unable to get bridging units through congested roads. Russian tanks and other vehicles lie abandoned on the roadside, either broken-down or out of fuel, suggesting supply lines are overstretched, and support units are unable to keep up. Marooned units are prime targets for ambushes. Ukrainian forces have no shortage of arms with which to strike them—in recent days, Denmark, Luxembourg and Finland became the latest European countries to say they would supply thousands of anti-tank missiles.
Nor has Russia secured the skies. Western officials thought that Russian missiles would wipe out Ukraine’s air defences—a network of radars and surface-to-air missiles—in the first hours of a war. In fact, the strikes were lighter than expected, possibly to conserve low stocks of precision munitions. Perhaps as a result, Russia has not made much use of its warplanes so far, though recent footage appears to show Su-34 bombers over Kharkiv and in the south of Ukraine.
The absence of air superiority has two knock-on effects. One is that soldiers lack proper fixed-wing air support—a historic weakness for Russia because of poor co-ordination between ground troops and air forces, says Guy Plopsky, an expert on the country’s air power. The other is that, because Russia is not sweeping the skies with fighter jets, Ukraine can keep more planes up—something helped by Russia’s sparing use of missiles, which means it is hitting only a few points on airfields, rather than cratering them completely. Ukraine is using its Turkish-made tb2 drones to conduct deadly strikes on unsuspecting Russian forces, who seem to have no idea what is above them. Few experts thought these drones would be usable four days into a war.
All of this points to deeper tactical shortcomings. In modern war different elements, including infantry, armour, artillery, air defence, engineering units and electronic warfare, are supposed to work together, each compensating for the other’s weaknesses. A tank, for instance, provides firepower for the infantry that travel with it; in turn, the infantry can dismount and hunt down anti-tank platoons. Russia is making a hash of this. In some cases, its tactics verge on the suicidal. A video reportedly taken in Bucha, a town north-west of Kyiv, shows a Russian armoured vehicle broadcasting propaganda, instructing civilians to remain calm. A man wielding a rocket-propelled grenade strolls up to the vehicle and calmly destroys it.»
Excerto de «The woes of the Russian war machine are big and real. Are they also temporary?»
4 comentários:
A guerra vai acabar num banho de sangue, infelizmente. Já teria terminado, se a Ucrânia tivesse um presidente e não um fantoche corrupto.
O sociopata Adam Schiff acaba de afirmar que vão combater os russos na Ucrânia para não ter que os combater na América. É este o motivo porque as conversações de paz não avançam.
O que há a dizer ao hipócrita europeu do cidadanismo de Roma XX-XXI é simples e óbvio:
---> ASSINEM O MAIS ELEMENTAR DOS TRATADOS DE PAZ!
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Sim: o europeu-do-sistema não está interessado no mais elementar dos tratados de paz:
---> um tratado de paz que combata o MAIS VELHO DISCURSO DE ÓDIO DA HISTÓRIA -> o ódio tiques-dos-impérios: o ódio a povos autóctones dotados da Liberdade de ter o seu espaço e prosperar ao seu ritmo.
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Para o europeu-do-sistema roubar/saquear territórios (em conjunto com sabotagens sociológicas: substituições populacionais, holocaustos massivos, etc) a povos autóctones... é uma herança universalista/multiculturalista.
[veja-se o que aconteceu na América do Norte, do Sul, etc]
Mais:
- quando se fala na devolução de territórios a povos autóctones (que foram impedidos de ter tempo de prosperar ao seu ritmo)... o europeu-do-sistema quer que essa devolução seja considerada 'racismo'.
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[o vizinho de Putin é pessoal nada recomendável]
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Mais, europeu-do-sistema XX-XXI:
- INSTIGA GUERRAS, INSTIGA SUBDESENVOLVIMENTO... E... PROCURA INSTITUIR ÓDIO, SENTIMENTO DE CULPA, CONTRA OS IDENTITÁRIOS AUTÓCTONES que reinvidicam a Liberdade de ter o seu espaço e prosperar ao seu ritmo.
[e instiga o cerco a Vladimir Putin por países da NATO: boys e girls a aguçar o dente às riquezas da Russia]
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Putin deveria ter feito uma ofensiva diplomática:
-> os líderes do europeu-do-sistema XX-XXI (Merkel, Sarkozy, etc) deveriam ser JULGADOS POR CRIMES CONTRA A HUMANIDADE.
[estiveram em conluio, quer com a destruição de economias, quer com o massacre de milhões de pessoas]
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Exemplo 1:
- Merkel (etc) bloqueiam a investigação à forma como chegam armas a 'grupos rebeldes' que... não possuem fábricas de armamento!
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Merkel (etc) estão preocupados é em acusar de '''RACISTAS'''/xenófobos os Identitários separatistas que dizem o óbvio:
- «a recepção de refugiados faź parte do negócio... os países aonde são produzidas as armas utilizadas pelos 'grupos rebeldes' é que têm de pagar a ajuda aos refugiados».
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[É isso: a máfia do armamento fornece armas a 'grupos rebeldes' (sim: os 'grupos rebeldes' não possuem fábricas de armamento!) para lucrar, não apenas com a venda de armas, mas também com o acesso a recursos naturais de baixo custo (petróleo, etc)... e mais, refugiados são deslocados para locais aonde existem investimentos interessados em negócios de abundância de mão-de-obra servil].
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Exemplo 2:
O europeu-do-sistema XX-XXI (procurando ter acesso a uma panóplia de fornecedores de abundância de mão-de-obra servil) bloqueia a introdução da Taxa-Tobin.
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Pois: o europeu-do-sistema está preocupado é em acusar de 'RACISTAS'/xenófobos os Identitários separatistas que dizem o óbvio:
- «num planeta aonde mais de 80% da riqueza está nas mãos dos mais ricos, que representam apenas 1% da população, quem deve pagar a aos povos mais pobres é a Taxa-Tobin, e não a degradação das condições de trabalho da mão-de-obra servil de outros povos».
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O 'problema' do europeu-do-sistema XX-XXI não é Identidade... mas sim, cidadanismo de Roma (dispôr de um território de saque).
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O cidadanismo de Roma tem duas vertentes:
1- ódio tiques-dos-impérios...
2- projectar uma economia de índole esclavagista:
- uma economia com o pressuposto da existência de outros como fornecedores abundância de mão-de-obra servil..
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Separatismo Identitário na Europa:
- NA ORIGEM DA NACIONALIDADE ESTEVE O IDEAL DE LIBERDADE IDENTITÁRIO ("ter o seu espaço, prosperar ao seu ritmo")... não foi... o cidadanismo de Roma.
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SEPARATISMO-50-50
---» Todos Diferentes, Todos Iguais... isto é: todas as Identidades Autóctones devem possuir o Direito de ter o SEU espaço no planeta -» INCLUSIVE as de rendimento demográfico mais baixo, INCLUSIVE as economicamente menos rentáveis.
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-» blog http://separatismo--50--50.blogspot.com
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P.S
Os 'globalization-lovers', UE-lovers, etc, que fiquem na sua... desde que respeitem os Direitos dos outros... e vice-versa.
Recomendo a leitura de "Guerras Conta a Europa" de Alexander Del Vale
check https://www.livapolo.pt/livro/detalhe/guerras-contra-a-europa/41822
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