Pro memoria (148) - Some of the epitomes of anarcho-capitalism are, ultimately, examples of the triumph of the helping hand of the State.

«SpaceX “is a marvel of free markets” and “capitalism at its most remarkable”, you said in your leader on the rocket firm’s forthcoming initial public offering (“A Starship enterprise”, May 23rd). This overlooks the critical role that government played in getting SpaceX off the ground. In 2008 the fledgling startup was heading for bankruptcy until NASA awarded it a $1.6bn contract, thereby providing a trajectory-changing revenue stream. American taxpayers absorbed much of the early risk that private investors would not. SpaceX’s success is impressive, but it is a triumph of state-supported capitalism more than a free-market marvel.» T. Michael Spencer, Washington, DC (Source)

At first glance, it may seem that Elon Musk is very similar to the Portuguese capitalist who lives off the State. In reality, there are some differences. Musk was first saved by the State and repays it by wanting to slim down the State (DOJE), while the Portuguese capitalists are first saved by the State, repay it by trying to fatten the State, and go bankrupt despite the State.

Peter Thiel, a Musk's old pal and frenemy, and patron of president‑in‑waiting JD Vance, is yet another shining epitome of that anarcho‑capitalist, in Thiel's case, of the strain that foretells the arrival of the Antichrist.

His company Palantir — whose main clients include several governments, notably the American and the Israeli — somehow manages, quite miraculously, to enjoy the state’s helping hand as well.

Dúvidas (368) - Um bicho que se parece com um pato, nada como um pato e grasna como um pato, pode ser um ornitorrinco? (2)

Ceci n'est pas un canard

Outras dúvidas sobre o bicho: (1)

Já confessei o meu espanto por se poder concluir que Viktor Orbán é um democrata e a Hungria sob a sua batuta era uma democracia plena, que as acções erráticas de Donald Trump escondem uma estratégia coerente e que a defesa da redução da idade da reforma pelo Dr. Ventura é uma estratégia sofisticadíssima para atrapalhar o PSD.

Acrescento a esse espanto outro, não menos intrigante. Como é possível que luminárias da comentadoria doméstica se indignem justamente com a corrupção que grassa em partidos moderados e, ao mesmo tempo, mais do que fazerem vista grossa, silenciem, limpem a folha ou mesmo exaltem a administração Trump, provavelmente a governação mais corrupta do mundo ocidental desde os Founding Fathers?

Como explicar que pessoas inteligentes e cultas conseguem imaginar que um bicho que se parece com um pato, nada como um pato, grasna como um pato, acasala com patas, não é um pato, é um mamífero que põe ovos? Do ponto de vista da psicologia evolucionista, a melhor explicação que encontrei foi a de Leor Zmigrod no seu The Ideological Brain; e, do ponto de vista da ciência política, a melhor referência que encontro é o que baptizámos neste blogue como doutrina Somoza, que pode ser resumida como «He may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch», juízo (ou piada?) atribuído a Franklin D. Roosevelt.

The news of Mr. Trump's reputation as a great negotiator is more exaggerated than the news of Mark Twain's death while he was still alive

«Donald Trump’s reputation and political career were built on his dealmaking prowess, yet the president keeps demonstrating that he is a terrible negotiator.

Repeatedly over the past nine years, Trump has gotten rolled by counterparts during high-stakes exchanges. North Korea, Russia, Russia again, China, and China again have gotten the better of the United States. Trump has had to slink back to Washington without much to show except empty talk about friendship with whatever dictator has just run circles around him. He’s had some success in brokering agreements when acting as a third party (though not nearly as much as he pretends) but much less luck when his own government is a participant. The one glaring exception came when he was effectively negotiating with himself, getting his own administration to set up a $1.8 billion slush fund for his political allies.

The newest example of Trump’s artlessness is Iran. Let’s review the past few days: Trump posted on Saturday that he was close to striking a deal with Tehran that would end the war he started earlier this year and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As the outlines of the agreement began to emerge, it looked both incomplete and bad: Trump had postponed discussing the hardest issues—matters, such as nuclear weapons, that led him to go to war—in exchange for opening the strait, which was open before Trump started the war. Hawkish Trump allies promptly criticized the deal, and despite histrionic pushback from Trump aides, the president had begun backing off claims of an imminent agreement by Sunday. “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama,” he posted. “Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet.” Yesterday, in a sign that a deal might not be near at all, the U.S. military conducted what it called “self-defense strikes” against Iranian targets—directly contradicting the administration’s previous claims about having wiped out any threats to the United States in Iran.»

David A. Graham, The Atlantic

Dúvida (367) - Um bicho que se parece com um pato, nada como um pato e grasna como um pato, pode ser um ornitorrinco?

Ceci n'est pas un canard

Distraidamente, não comentei as reacções à derrota eleitoral do Fidesz de pessoas geralmente tidas como conservadoras que se reclamam democratas (alguns até se dizem liberais), concluindo que essa derrota demonstraria que, afinal, Viktor Orbán era um democrata e a Hungria uma democracia plena.

 

Nunca pensei que a Hungria governada pelo Fidesz já fosse uma ditadura - era mais uma democracia avariada. Porém, isso não era por causa de Viktor Orbán e do Fidesz; era, apesar deles, que tudo fizeram para se perpetuarem no poder, como aqui se exemplificou, e disso extraírem vantagens.

Concluir que Viktor Orbán era um democrata e a Hungria uma democracia plena é parecido com concluir que as acções erráticas de Donald Trump escondem uma estratégia coerente que escapa aos não iniciados ou, para dar um exemplo doméstico, é parecido com concluir que a defesa da redução da idade da reforma pelo Dr. Ventura não é um oportunismo irrealista de um demagogo e antes resulta de uma estratégia sofisticadíssima para encostar ao PSD à parede promovendo as ideias do PS e assim chegar à maioria. 

Como explicar que pessoas inteligentes e cultas conseguem imaginar que um bicho que se parece com um pato, nada como um pato, grasna como um pato, acasala com patas, não é um pato, é um mamífero que põe ovos? Não me ocorre explicação melhor do que a de Leor Zmigrod no seu The Ideological Brain.

Pro memoria (146) - Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk pareciam ser um bocadinho magalómanos... e estão a ser

Continuação de Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos e de Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos... e o défice pode ainda aumentar

Recordemos que o Sr. Musk garantiu em plena campanha eleitoral em 2024 num comício MAGAlómano no Madison Square Garden que iria cortar um terço do orçamento federal anual de US$ 7 biliões, o equivalente a US$ 2,3 biliões (2.300.000.000.000). 

Consumado o divórcio Musk-Trump, passado um ano e meio desde o anúncio e apenas cinco meses do ano fiscal de 2026 iniciado em Outubro e ainda sem a despesa militar decorrente do ataque ao Irão ao fim da 3.ª semana estimada em cerca de USD 20 mil milhões (o governo pediu ao Congresso um reforço do orçamento militar de USD 200 mil milhões), os dados oficiais mostram uma dívida federal em constante crescimento que já ultrapassou a do ano fiscal anterior.

Treasury.gov

Nas palavras do Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget «No matter what metric one chooses to examine our fiscal trajectory, we are clearly headed in the wrong direction. Gross debt is now $39 trillion; debt held by the public recently surpassed $31 trillion for the first time; deficits are approaching $2 trillion; and deficits as a share of the economy are twice as large as the 3% goal many economists and bipartisan policymakers believe we ought to be targeting.?»

Trumponomics' unintended consequences (6) - Possible collateral damage from the attack on Iran and the Ayatollah regime's response

Other Trumponomics' unintended consequences.

«The shutdown of oil and gas production due to saturation of storage capacity (the so-called tank-top) is a critical scenario, as the sector operates in continuous flow. If the Strait of Hormuz closes and the flow stops, the consequences would be:

1. Structural and Technical Damage to Wells

Unlike a tap, stopping production in an oil field is a complex process.

Damage to reservoirs: The sudden shutdown can alter underground pressure, causing leaks of water or sand that can permanently damage the well.

Difficulty in Restarting: Resuming production can take months and require massive investments. In some cases, the flow never returns to previous levels, resulting in the definitive loss of reserves.

2. "Flaring" and Waste of Gas

Natural gas is often extracted along with oil (associated gas).

If oil tanks are full but the gas cannot be processed or exported, companies are forced to burn the gas (flaring) in massive volumes, generating an environmental disaster and economic waste of resources that could heat millions of homes.

3. Value Destruction and Bankruptcies

Maintenance Costs: Even when shut down, infrastructure requires maintenance to prevent corrosion. Without sales revenue, producing countries (such as those in the Gulf) face acute fiscal crises, as they depend on this flow to finance the state.

Take-or-Pay Contracts: Production shutdowns lead to non-compliance with long-term supply contracts, generating international legal battles and financial penalties of billions of dollars.

4. Extreme Price Volatility

Short Term: The price skyrockets globally due to scarcity in the consumer market.

Medium Term: When production is finally resumed, a sudden oversupply may occur, causing a price crash, similar to what briefly happened in 2020 (negative prices). 

5. Reconfiguration of Energy Geopolitics

The forced shutdown in the Middle East would accelerate the energy transition and investment in exploration in other regions (USA, Brazil, Guyana) and renewable energies, to reduce dependence on such a vulnerable chokepoint.»

Google's Gemini Response

Trumponomics' unintended consequences (5)

Other Trumponomics' unintended consequences.

The White House

Source

Trumponomics' unintended consequences (4)

Other Trumponomics' unintended consequences.

«During the summer of his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump made a vow to the cryptocurrency industry: Elect him, and the United States would become the "crypto capital of the planet.” That winter, after crypto-industry donations helped secure Trump’s place in the White House, digital assets began appreciating rapidly—and the president-elect was glad to take the credit. When bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark, he simply posted, “YOU’RE WELCOME!!!”

For a sense of just how much money has evaporated from the crypto industry since then, look to bitcoin. On October 6, the price of a single bitcoin climbed to an all-time high north of $126,000; today, its value is closer to $69,000. The global market capitalization of all coins has shed more than $2 trillion in that time, and fewer and fewer traders are dabbling in meme coins and derivatives. Following a relatively fruitful 2025, crypto-venture-capital deals have fallen off a cliff over the past few months. Commentators have now started to wonder whether the president, who has spent the past two years positioning himself as the industry’s protector and hype man, might initiate a crypto bailout.»

What the Crypto Crash Reveals About Trump’s Power

Trumponomics' unintended consequences (3)

Other Trumponomics' unintended consequences.

2024 Dec

2026 Feb

The White House 

2026 Feb

Trumponomics' unintended consequences (2)

Other Trumponomics' unintended consequences.

 

The White House 

Source: Joint Economic Committee Republicans

SERVIÇO PÚBLICO: A Mãe de Todas as Greves por 12 (doze) meses

O STTS - Sindicato Nacional dos Trabalhadores dos Serviços e de Entidades com Fins Públicos, um sindicato com sede em Viana do Castelo que foi fundado em 2016 para os trabalhadores municipais do Alto Minho, cujo número de sócios não divulgado deve ser um pouco superior às duas dezenas de membros dos órgãos sociais, anunciou uma greve às horas extras e às cirurgias adicionais no âmbito do Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Inscritos para Cirurgia (SIGIC).

Para o caso de nunca chegarem a dar por isso, aqui fica o AVISO PRÉVIO DE GREVE PARA TODOS OS TRABALHADORES DA SAÚDE A PARTIR DE 01 DE JANEIRO A 31 DE DEZEMBRO DE 2026.

Javier Milei's troubles. Do as I say, not as I do

«Mr Milei’s economic team is in Washington, trying to hash out the details of the bail-out and buy some calm. Yet even if they can navigate American politics, the Argentine variety may swamp them. A serious loss in the midterms would all but end Mr Milei’s radical economic reform programme.

The coming weeks will be tough. Voters consider Mr Milei’s success in pulling down inflation to be old news. Corruption allegations and the gyrations of the peso dominate the headlines. It is still—just—possible that Mr Milei could emerge after the elections with markets calmed and his political hand strengthened. But he needs to make it to October 26th without more exchange-rate chaos, and then win enough seats in Congress to convince markets that his reform project is still alive. (...)

Then Mr Milei needs to win, or at least take enough seats to allow him to defend his presidential veto. But his electoral strategy is in trouble. His dogmatism has alienated powerful provincial governors. He came to power in 2023 raging against “la casta”, the corrupt political elite. “I’m hungry for the whole caste,” he roared again during his concert. And yet he has been hit by three big corruption scandals this year.

The first was over his promotion of a dodgy cryptocurrency that soon collapsed in value. Then, in August, leaked audio messages led to allegations that his sister was taking kickbacks from purchases of medicine by the state disability agency. The latest blow was on October 5th, when José Luis Espert, the leading candidate of Mr Milei’s party in Buenos Aires, whose face is already on the ballot papers, stood down. He admitted to receiving $200,000 from a man indicted in the United States for drug-trafficking, but says it was for legitimate consulting work. In all three cases those involved deny wrongdoing.

Curbing rampant inflation is the other pillar of Mr Milei’s pitch. Fast-rising prices used to be voters’ biggest worry, but unfortunately for him they have moved on, and now corruption tops the list. That inflation concerns have ebbed is a testimony to Mr Milei’s success, but he has failed to pivot to other issues. An overvalued peso helped to curb price growth, but propping it up has both hurt employment and exacerbated the exchange-rate crisis. Now more voters worry about jobs than inflation.

Polling suggests Mr Milei’s party still has a chance. But momentum is against it. He will need more than rock concerts to turn things around.»

The Argentine peso, and Javier Milei, are in trouble

O estranho caso do Dr. Ventura e do Sr. André. O Dr. Ventura explica o efeito das fake news nos resultados eleitorais

O Dr. Ventura de há oito anos explica o actual Dr. Ventura e poderia ter inspirado Robert Louis Stevenson.

Is Donald Trump a liar or a bullshiter?

«We’re going to become so rich, you’re not gonna know
where to spend all that money. I’m telling you—just watch!»

Is Donald Trump a liar or a bullshiter?, that's the question in the Harry Frankfurt sense (About the bullshit).

«The press takes it literally, but not seriously; its supporters take it seriously, but not literally», Salena Zito wrote provocatively nine years ago in The Atlantic.

Pro memoria (443) - Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos... e o défice pode ainda aumentar

Continuação de Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos

Recordemos que o Sr. Musk garantiu o ano passado num comício MAGAlómano no Madison Square Garden que iria cortar um terço do orçamento federal anual de US$ 7 biliões, o equivalente a US$ 2,3 biliões (2.300.000.000.000) e que as últimas estimativas apontam para cortes que não devem ultrapassar os 150 a 170 milhões.

Por muito paradoxal que seja a acção do DOGE, ainda mais paradoxal é que, entre o pork barrel e o prolongamento das redução de taxas sobre o rendimento introduzidas no primeiro mandato de Donald Trump, do que está em discussão no Congresso podem resultar incrementos das despesas federais e redução dos impostos que acrescentarão à dívida biliões de dólares.

The Cost of BIG, BEAUTIFUL DEBT (fonte)

Em resultado, várias agências reviram em baixa a classificação de crédito da dívida americana que perdeu o triple A pela primeira vez em décadas. É mais um exemplo notável das leis Merton de unintended consequences de que a administração MAGAlómana nos tem dado inúmeros exemplos.

Como corolário a lei de Merton, Elon Musk, o mentor do DOGE, saltou em andamento do comboio do MAGA com um post bombástico na sua rede X:

«I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.»

E assim terminou uma GREAT and BEAUTIFUL friendship.

Pro memoria (442) - Os cortes no orçamento federal anunciados pelo Sr. Musk podem ser um bocadinho magalómanos

Antes de olharmos para os cortes anunciados pelo Sr. Musk, recordemos uma estimativa feita em Setembro do ano passado sobre os impactos orçamentais no período 2025-34 das políticas anunciadas pelos candidatos de onde resultava que o défice total estimado para uma administração Trump seria o dobro do de uma administração Harris.

Fonte

De volta ao Sr. Musk que perante o delírio dos magalómanos presentes no MAGA-comício no Madison Square Garden garantiu o ano passado que iria cortar um terço do orçamento federal anual de US$ 7 biliões, o equivalente a US$ 2,3 biliões (2.300.000.000.000). 

Seis meses depois a propaganda do DOGE (Departamento de Eficiência Governamental) anuncia ter feito cortes de US$ 170 mil milhões ou 7,3% do anunciado, dos quais a parte mais bem documentada são os US$ 31,8 mil milhões de 10.248 cancelamentos e alterações de contratos dos quais o Financial Times só conseguiu confirmar cerca de 2/3. Ainda assim, há provas de avaliações inflacionadas, por exemplo considerando como corte da despesa contratos já terminados, e muitos dos cortes anunciados são pontuais e não recorrentes nos próximos anos e outros ameaçam paralisar o aparelho federal.

Mais verificável é a opacidade do funcionamento do DOGE sobre o qual pouco se sabe. É também mais verificável a perda de biliões de dólares da fortuna pessoal do Sr. Musk pela desvalorização da Tesla e o cancelamento de contratos da Starlink.

[Leia What has Elon Musk’s Doge actually achieved? para ter mais detalhes dos excessos magalómanos]

Caesar said that his wife ought not even to be under suspicion she ought to be above suspicion. The First Lady should say that her husband is not above suspicion and does appear to be under suspicion.

There’s No Such Thing as a Free Plane

«Donald Trump is in talks to accept a $400 million gift from a foreign government. The president has become impatient as he awaits replacements for Air Force One—initially due from Boeing in 2024, they’re now expected in 2027—and ABC News reported yesterday that the small Persian Gulf country of Qatar, an American ally, intends to give him a plane.

The most astonishing thing is that Trump is doing this out in the open. One secret to his impunity thus far has been that rather than try to hide his misdeeds—that’s what amateurs such as Nixon and Harding did—he calculates that if he makes no pretense, he can get away with them. This worked when he called on foreign countries to interfere in U.S. elections, when he declined to divest from his companies in his first term, and when he tried to subvert the 2020 presidential election. Now he is daring the courts, Congress, and Americans to either stop him or else declare graft legal—at least for him.

Underscoring the crookedness, the plane would ultimately belong not to the U.S. government but to Trump: Once he leaves office, it would reportedly “be transferred to the Trump Presidential Library Foundation no later than Jan. 1, 2029, and any costs relating to its transfer will be paid for by the U.S. Air Force,” per ABC. In short, a foreign government might give the president of the United States a $400 million personal gift. Not a bad haul at a time when Trump is asking American children to do with fewer dolls and pencils. (Federal law allows officials to accept personal gifts below a certain amount, currently set at $480. That’s 0.0001 percent the estimated value of the plane.)»

Continue reading the original article from The Atlantic

The price of vassalage

Cartoon by Anne Telnaes, Pulitzer Prize-winning, refused to be published by Jeff Bezos' Washington Post / Bloomberg

Warren Buffett, who has the worst opinion of Mr. Trump, Bernard Arnault, who is in another league, Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer cannot be accused of vassalage.

Pior do que aumentar discricionariamente os direitos de importação é induzir imprevisibilidade no sistema

Fonte

 Na lógica trumpiana o aumento das "tarifas" (*) iria ter três "belos" efeitos para Make America Great Again. Reduzir o desequilíbrio da balança comercial americana, equilibrar as contas públicas com o aumento da receita fiscal e pôr em prática uma estratégia de substituição das importações proposta pela Comissão Económica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL) que os governos esquerdistas da América Latina adoptaram nas décadas de 60 e 70 do século passado, com o sucesso conhecido. Tudo isto com o propósito de trazer de novo para os EUA os empregos que tinha voado para a China, o México, etc. 

Esquecendo os efeitos inflacionários e que quem paga as "tarifas" são os consumidores americanos, esquecendo os efeitos da falta de concorrência na produtividade e na eficiência das empresas americanas, esquecendo os efeitos nas exportações americanas das retaliações da China, da UE, do Canadá, do México, etc. e esquecendo várias outras coisas talvez mais importantes, pergunto quem é que num contexto político, social e económico em que tudo pode mudar da manhã para a tarde vai investir na indústria americana para criar novos empregos? 

VIX (CBOE Volatility Index da Chicago Board Options Exchange) 

Antes de responder convém olhar para o índice VIX que traduz a expectativa de volatilidade dos investidores e que atingiu valores só ultrapassados nos últimos 20 anos pela crise do subprime e pela pandemia.

 U.S. Treasury Bond Futures

E, já agora, convém também olhar para os futuros da dívida americana.

(*) O jornalismo de causas amador e ignorante parece ter adoptado "tarifas" para traduzir "tariffs" (sinónimo import levy), termo que faz sentido em inglês e que traduzido em português por tarifas" é um perfeito disparate.

_______________

Já depois de ter escrito este post, li o artigo de Ricardo Reis «As tarifas de Trump são ainda piores do que pensa», cuja meridiana clareza recomenda a leitura. 

Pro memoria (439) - There are two Sundar Pichais - the one who fired James Damore and the one who bowed down to Trump

Almost eight years ago, (Im)pertinências described in this post the case of software engineer James Damore who worked for Google before deciding to write a 10-page memo where, among other debatable things, he said (source): «(...) men and women differ biologically in many ways (...)» and that the tendency to protect women creates a hostile environment for men «because men are biologically disposable and because women are generally more cooperative and agreeable than man», something that evolutionary psychology confirms.

What did Google do? Damore was fired and Google CEO Sundar Pichai issued a memo to staff saying that «suggesting that a group of our colleagues have traits that make them less biologically suited to this job is offensive and not okay,» and that parts of the memo actively violated Google's code of conduct by «promoting harmful gender stereotypes in our workplace.»

Eight years later, a reporter from The Free Press went to meet Damore in Luxembourg, who had since been boycotted by the tech community and had been unable to find a steady job.

Some time earlier, on January 20, the same Sundar Pichai appeared at the inauguration of the new POTUS in the company of Elon Musk and other techno-garchs, bowing to Trump's «harmful gender stereotypes», principles that were opposed to those that led him to fire Damore.

Take this case as just one example among the bunch of opportunistic techno-garchs who have jumped on Donald Trump bandwagon and who don't believe a word of his bullshit.