Doubts (389) – Will Brexit happen? (XXIII) - A perfect example of Merton's laws

Other doubts about the consummation of Brexit (mostly in Portuguese).

[For those unfamiliar with Merton's laws or the laws of unintended consequences, see here.]

Try asking ChatGPT «What did the brexiters want to achieve by leaving the EU?» and you will probably get an answer «... some key factors that motivated Brexiters:

1. Sovereignty: One of the central arguments put forward by Brexit supporters was the desire to reclaim national sovereignty. (...)
2. Economic and Trade Independence: Some Brexit supporters emphasized the potential economic benefits of leaving the EU. (...)
3. Immigration Control: Concerns over immigration played a significant role in the Brexit debate.  (...)
4. Democratic Governance: Brexit supporters often raised concerns about the democratic deficit within the EU. (...)» 

With these goals in mind, let's take a look at some recent news about the Brexit outcome.

«German carmakers are lobbying the European Commission to delay post-Brexit rules that threaten to deliver a severe blow to Britain’s troubled car industry.

From next year, electric vehicles shipped between the UK and the EU will need to have 45 per cent of their parts sourced from within the two regions or face 10 per cent tariffs, under “rules of origin” terms set out in their post-Brexit trading agreement.

With many of the batteries still sourced from Asia, EVs are likely to fall foul of the new threshold and incur the tariff, which Vauxhall and Peugeot owner Stellantis warned on Tuesday might force it to shut its UK plant at Ellesmere Port.» (FT)

In a recently published article, ECB economists Katrin Forster-van Aerssen and Tajda Spital analyzed developments in the UK's trade and labor market two and a half years after Brexit and concluded that «the available data suggest that Brexit has been a drag on UK trade and contributed to a fall in labor supply, both of which are likely to affect the country's long-term growth potential».

«During the Brexit campaign, much fuss was made of the news that immigration had hit 323,000 a year, making a mockery of David Cameron’s promise to reduce it to the ‘tens of thousands’. Brexiteers and Remainers alike assumed the whole point of leaving the EU and ending ‘free movement’ was to reduce arrivals. The consensus was that about 130,000 a year was right. We now take that amount of people roughly every ten weeks. The net migration figure released next week is expected to come in at above 700,000 a year: by far the largest in the history of our islands.» (Spectator)

Since the first poll on February 2012 in which Leave was worth 48% and Remain 30%, the values reversed around May 2017 when the percentages were equal. Two and a half years after Brexit, here's what the British think of it.

Source

Once again, the truth and the facts end up exposing the lies, unfortunately at a high cost. One after another, the various lies and distortions were revealed and the result of the "liberation" of the United Kingdom from the European yoke is so far: increasing immigration, massive deficits, a sharply increasing public debt and... the lowest forecasted growth in the next two years, from all OECD countries.