BELIEVE IT OR NOT! Finally, an agreement in which it is agreed that maybe an agreement will be reached (2) - Executive summary for MAGA believers

Continuation of (1), (2)

The following text is a summary by the MS Copilot of the article "Donald Trump gambles that Iran wants money more than power," and is intended for those who, 109 days after the incompetent attack on Iran, are still searching for a rationale in the chaotic decisions of their messiah. Good luck with that.

«The article analyzes Donald Trump’s preliminary peace deal with Iran, arguing that Trump is betting that Tehran values money more than strategic power — a risky and likely misguided assumption.

1. The deal: lots of money, few demands

Unable to defeat Iran militarily, Trump now offers:

• The unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars
• Lifting of sanctions
• Immediate access to oil exports
• A reconstruction fund of at least $300 billion (1)

In return, Iran promises:

• Not to build a nuclear weapon (a long‑standing pledge)
• To reduce part of its enriched uranium
• To negotiate aspects of its nuclear program (without firm commitments)

The regime gives up almost nothing.

 2. The Strait of Hormuz and American humiliation

The deal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but:

• Before the war, the passage was already open
• Now, after 60 days, tolls may be imposed
• The article frames this as proof of the folly of the war and Trump’s final capitulation

3. Why the plan may fail

The text lists several reasons:

1. Iranian leaders do not trust the U.S.
2. They expect Israel to sabotage the agreement
3. The nuclear program provides prestige and protection
4. Iran is skilled at dragging out negotiations
5. Inspections will be difficult, and the regime may cheat

4. Israel: the big loser

• Israel pushed for the war but was excluded from the negotiations
• Its campaign against Hezbollah was weakened
• Netanyahu may pay a political price in the October elections (2)
• The war was a strategic failure: Iran remains a threat

5. Gulf states: between fear and pragmatism

• They need to restore an image of stability
• They remain vulnerable to Iranian drones and missiles
• They may:
• Strengthen ties with Israel
• Accommodate Iran
• Or try to balance both sides
• They can no longer rely on America’s willingness to fight

6. The final critique

The article concludes that:

• Trump should never have started the war
• He now tries to exit it by assuming that “everyone does everything for money”
• But diplomacy requires understanding that the adversary does not think like you

In short

The deal is portrayed as:

• A humiliating U.S. retreat
• A strategic victory for Iran
• A setback for Israel
• A risk to regional security
• A fragile bet based on financial incentives that may not work.»

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(1) With the pious intention of shedding light on the dull minds that habitually resort to the lazy and unintelligent expedient of trying to disguise the errors of their idols with the errors of their enemies, I remind you that the Barack Obama administration agreed to pay Iran compensation for defaults by previous administrations to resolve a long-standing legal dispute handled by the Iran-U.S. Claims Tribunal in The Hague. This payment had the following two main components:

• USD 400 million for failing to deliver military equipment paid for by Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution;
• USD 1.3 billion relating to interest accrued over 35 years on that amount.

(2) Bibi has based his propaganda on: (a) only he could withstand international pressure and (b) only he could influence Trump. Now Bibi is compelled to choose between (a) and (b) and either disobey Trump on Lebanon and Iran, to save (a), or give in to preserve the perception of (b). Either option is bad for Bibi.