«FOR HALF a century the Middle East’s petro-monarchies have cast themselves as reliable suppliers of low-cost petroleum. The third Gulf war, now in its fifth week, has shattered that image. With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, 15% of the world’s oil cannot reach its customers. All Gulf states have slashed output and seen export proceeds plunge.
All bar one. As its tankers keep plying the strait (see chart 1), Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th. It may be pummelled on the battlefield, but the regime is winning the energy war.
Working out how many barrels the world’s greatest sanctions-dodger exports is hard. Its tankers are more furtive than ever, commercial providers of satellite imagery have paused their updates for the region and electronic scrambling has thrown a fog across the Gulf. But a source with knowledge of Iran’s oil accounting, who spoke to The Economist on condition of anonymity, confirms the country is currently exporting 2.4m-2.8m barrels of oil and petroleum products per day (b/d), including 1.5m-1.8m b/d of crude. That is the same, if not more, than it did on average last year. It also sells at much higher prices.
Moreover, Iran’s oil machine has adapted in ways that make it more resilient to strikes and sanctions. Most of the proceeds are now going to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s elite fighting force. And China is playing an active role in allowing the money to flow. Iran’s war chest is buried deep in Asia, safe from Israeli ordnance.»
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