No, maybe it won't be the end of the world (3)

Continued from (1) and (2)

How can we explain that this time the difference between projections and results was even greater than usual without using the usual conspiracy theories that Trumpists are so fond of?

RealClearPolitics Poll Average

If, as is reasonable to admit, most of the projections are prepared by reliable entities and are not intentionally manipulated, the huge difference in the final results could arise, in my opinion, in addition to the usual and known difficulties, from a part of the “shy” Trump voters who for some reason do not reveal their voting intention.

The Economist

The second chart shows larger deviations precisely in the most “Trumpist” states.

Another issue that is little highlighted and which contradicts the extreme radicalization of the electorate is the high level of non-participation. In the 2020 elections, 159 million voted out of a voting age population of around 231 million, leaving around 72 million or 31,2% who were eligible (not just registered voters) but did not participate. 

In the 2024 elections around 239 million Americans were estimated to be eligible to vote and at this moment only 144 million votes have been counted, which suggests a level of non-participation much higher than in 2020, with Trump's votes very close to those of 2020. Put another way, eligible voters who did not vote because they did not consider either candidate suitable were more numerous than voters for either candidate.

(To be continued)