[Uma espécie de continuação de «Too big to fail» - another financial volcanic eruption in the making (1) e (2) e de «Da próxima vez também...» (1)]
Para não ser sempre o mesmo a escrever a mesma coisa, desta vez vou citar a newsletter de Simon Baptist, o Chief Economist da EIU da Economist, gente que, se sofre de algum enviesamento, será mais para o lado do optimismo militante do que do catastrofismo:
«House prices in London rose by 18.7% year on year in April. The last time they rose so quickly was in July 2007, immediately before credit markets seized up and the global financial crisis took hold. Property prices are also rising at a double-digit rate in other desirable, international cities, such as Sydney and San Francisco. Last week the IMF warned that house prices "remain well above the historical averages for the majority of countries" when benchmarked against incomes and rents.
Given our forecast that interest rates will remain extremely low in the developed world for some time, policymakers must guard against the formation of new asset price bubbles. This will be tricky, as some central banks—such as the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank—are committed to further monetary loosening. There is a political dimension too: governments facing re-election in countries with high levels of home ownership, such as the UK, will be wary of upsetting mortgaged voters, given the boost to confidence that comes with rising house prices.»
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