NÓS VISTOS POR ELES: ponde as barbas de molho

Imune ao discurso delirantemente optimista do governo, a agência de rating Fitch emitiu ontem, a propósito da notação da dívida pública portuguesa de longo prazo, a seguinte press release:

«Fitch Ratings has today assigned the Republic of Portugal's debut 30-year EUR3 billion bond an 'AA' rating. The rating is in line with Portugal's Issuer Default rating, which is on a Negative Outlook.

Despite Portugal's good economic progress between 1990-2000, euro area membership and a satisfactory income per head - albeit still below the average for Western Europe - it has not been able to maintain this momentum since 2000. Growth has been low, even negative in one year, while income per head has stagnated. Part of the problem has been an over-dependence on traditional manufacturing, especially textiles, where foreign competition from lower wage economies has been intensifying. Also, Portugal is losing out in attracting foreign direct investments to the emerging markets of Eastern Europe, many of which are now in the EU itself. This contrasts with its success in bringing in foreign investment in the 1990s. Slovakia, for example, is attracting much of the automotive investment that might have gone to Portugal. Another part of the explanation for slow growth may be sought in the country's relatively rapid inflation, at least in the years 2001 to 2003, which caused a cumulative real appreciation of 9% during this period. Although inflation has now fallen back to the euro area average and there has been virtually no further appreciation for the past two years, to some extent the slow growth was necessary, and may need to remain so in order to restore the real exchange rate to competitive levels.

Poor economic growth has had a direct impact on fiscal performance. In 2001, Portugal became the first euro area member to breach the 3% of GDP deficit limit. This led to a series of emergency expenditure cuts and tax increases, which failed to achieve their objectives, partly because they relied excessively on one-off expedients.

Last year, a new government accepted that on unchanged policies the deficit would rise towards 7% of GDP and instituted another round of spending cuts and tax hikes. In the event, the deficit for 2005 appears to have been held at about 6%. The government intends that the deficit will fall further, mainly because of further expenditure containment, and targets a deficit below 3% for 2008. It remains to be seen whether the government will be able to implement successfully and in full the much needed programme of structural and fiscal reforms it has begun, but past experience has not been encouraging. If the government succeeds, its debt will stabilise in two or three years at just short of 70% of GDP, which is still more than double the present median debt level for 'AA'-rated sovereigns. In Fitch's opinion, current government plans for fiscal consolidation are insufficiently ambitious, even if achieved in practice.»

Neste quadro são expectáveis efeitos pouco agradáveis, como sejam os impactos no serviço da dívida pública que irão aumentar o défice, os impostos, ou ambos, no serviço da dívida da banca portuguesa à banca europeia que no final de 2005 já atingia 7,6 mil milhões (3,3% do PIB), e last but not least o impacto na dívida dos particulares decorrente dos aumentos previsíveis na taxa básica do Banco Central Europeu, que desde finais do ano passado até ao fim deste ano poderá aumentar 1,25% (mais de 60%).